UFC 305 odds, predictions: Dricus Du Plessis defends title against former champ Adesanya (2024)

We have a huge UFC 305 slate as the promotion heads to Perth, Australia, this weekend, where former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will look to reclaim his throne against Dricus Du Plessis.

Titles have been changing hands like hotcakes, as we saw Belal Muhammad take the welterweight strap from Leon Edwards on our last PPV event, and our main event on Saturday is a pick’em. This card is sure to bring a lot of action and should be exciting from top to bottom.

It’s not my favorite card to bet on in recent memory, as many fights have non-competitive betting lines or require large assumptions on one side or the other. I’ll still be breaking down the main event as well as a couple of other interesting spots.

If you’d like full breakdowns for this card, and for every fight on every slate, you can find that at Establishtherun.com or follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley for more info.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

A heated rivalry will get settled in the octagon on Saturday as middleweight champion Du Plessis defends his title against Adesanya.

We haven’t seen Adesanya step into the cage since he lost his belt to Sean Strickland last September, and there’s no doubt he wants to touch gold once again.

Adesanya has climbed his way to superstardom after a dedicated kickboxing career. He rattled off nine consecutive wins once he entered the UFC. We’ve now seen him fall short against Jan Blachowicz, Alex Pereira, and Strickland, so the momentum has turned against him a bit.

Adesanya has a great camp, great technique and loads of experience to fall back on, but I’ll be interested to see if his style has worn out its welcome. He’s a limited volume striker and a limited grappler. While striking technique is great, pacing is often more important. Adesanya only lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.11 per minute at a 56 percent defensive rate. He’s topped out at 94, 86, 116 and 79 significant strikes landed over five rounds in recent decisions, which is cause for concern about whether he can continue to fight in competitive rounds.

Although he can outclass most in the division and is still a threat to win by KO, Strickland was able to back him up, march him down and land more often and more effectively. That’s what Du Plessis will attempt to do as well.

Du Plessis, for better or worse, has shown plenty of aggression in his UFC career, which has helped lead him to seven consecutive victories and a championship title. He will kick at distance and then bomb his way in with power shots. He’s earned four knockdowns in that span and is capable of hurting any man in this division. His metrics are also pretty strong, as he lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.77 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. He can also wrestle a bit, and he lands 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes.

I don’t think too highly of his grappling game, though. For example, Du Plessis landed six takedowns against Strickland in that championship match but did nothing with them. He was only able to accrue two total minutes of control on 11 takedown attempts, which is poor.

My biggest issue with Du Plessis is that despite the metrics, his technique is severely lacking. He just likes to wing shots while he rushes in, and he leaves himself open. He got outlanded 157 to 81 to the head by Strickland, and there’s a pretty good argument that Strickland deserved to win that fight.

Perhaps he has more grappling control upside against Adesanya, and it’s fair to project wrestling as a mild path to victory. But Adesanya defends takedowns at 77 percent, and I think he can neutralize Du Plessis for the most part.Even though Du Plessis will attempt more volume than Adesanya, projecting him to easily land more strikes is not realistic. Adesanya is the best striker Du Plessis has ever fought, and he should have lots of success on the counter.

Du Plessis will have the power advantages, though, and if he does land on Adesanya, he could hurt him. Adesanya has been knocked down and knocked out before, and there’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges. A KO for Du Plessis is possible, but I’d argue Adesanya has similar knockout equity due to the openings Du Plessis will give him.

A competitive betting line makes sense for this fight. You can make the argument for Du Plessis, given his volume production, his wrestling, his power and his form. And you can make the argument for Adesanya in that he’s more technical and will likely limit most of Du Plessis’ attacks. Rounds still project to be competitive and one big shot from either side could swing the momentum.

On BetMGM, Adesanya is a slight favorite at -120. I don’t see the reasoning to feel confident in either side, and I won’t be making any real investment in this matchup on the betting side. My gut lean is that Adesanya will outclass Du Plessis and could have some sneaky KO equity, but I wouldn’t recommend playing that route unless it’s for fun.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Coming off a UFC flyweight title loss to Alexandre Pantoja, Erceg will be looking to bounce back against a veteran of the division in Kara-France.

Erceg, Australia’s home favorite, performed well and nearly beat Pantoja in that championship fight, which is quite an accomplishment considering he wasn’t in the UFC prior to 2023. He was taken down nine times and outlanded over the duration, but he scrambled well with the dangerous grappler and nearly took three rounds.

Now he’ll face an opponent in Kara-France who has been in the UFC since 2018, but one who has struggled to reach the pinnacle, losing a title fight to Brandon Moreno in 2022.

I’ve always had a soft spot for Kara-France because he’s a worker. He fights at a high pace, and he’s well-rounded. He currently lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.24 per minute with a 65 percent defensive rate. He hasn’t chosen to wrestle much offensively, only averaging 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he does defend at 88 percent and has been competent in keeping the fight upright and defending on the mat when necessary.

The problem is that Kara-France isn’t hugely effective. He’s only 5-foot-4, and he’ll once again be the smaller fighter in this matchup, though he has a one-inch longer reach than the 5-foot-8 Erceg. He packs power for his size, but his knockout wins have been sparing. He did KO Cody Garbrandt in Garbrandt’s trip down to 125, but that’s been the most impressive display of his power, and Garbrandt has severe durability issues.

Otherwise, Kara-France is dependent on volume, and he’s generally in high-paced and competitive matchups. He’s a decent round-winner, given his pacing, but he rarely wins convincingly.

Erceg didn’t strike me as a real championship threat when he entered the UFC, and I thought of him largely as a grappler. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and strong on the mat. He’s looked far more competent standing than I expected, and his offensive boxing looks pretty capable.

I do worry a bit about his defense though, as he stands upright and doesn’t move his head a whole lot. In that sense, he’s there to be hit, and it’s possible he will be hurt sometime soon. But he just fought a war with Pantoja and came out clean, and his metrics are fine. He lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.20 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate.

This will be a competitive fight that is likely to go to the scorecards, but I lean toward Erceg.

Kara-France’s best performances have come against lower-quality strikers like Amir Albazi, Askar Askarov, Mark De La Rosa and Elias Garcia. He’s had a tougher time, against quality competition. Moreno, Brandon Royval and Raulian Paiva have all outlanded him. He’s also been fighting as a pro since 2010, and it’s tough to gauge whether he’s out there making improvements on a fight-to-fight basis.

Erceg packs a larger frame and more firepower, though I still expect exchanges to be competitive on the feet. Erceg has the additional path to victory on the mat, which I think could come in handy. Several of Kara-France’s opponents have had some grappling success, including Rogerio Bontorin, Askarov and Albazi. While I don’t know if Erceg will chase takedowns aggressively, landing one or two over 15 minutes could be the swing difference in a round.

Erceg is a -190 favorite on BetMGM, but the line has been bouncing around this week. He opened north of -200 on some books but can now be had for as little as -165. I’ll keep an eye on that, but at his current price, especially at -165 or better, I would argue he’s a slight value.

I also think the most likely outcome for either man is a decision, and you can find the Erceg by decision prop at +120.

Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker

When you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes, and it’s a dangerous game I’m considering this week when analyzing a low-level heavyweight matchup between Tafa and Walker.

Tafa is a former GLORY kickboxer who has made a transition to MMA alongside his older brother Justin Tafa. He is 5-2 professionally with all five wins coming by knockout, and the majority of those wins have come in Round 1.

In the UFC, Tafa is off to a slower start. He lost his debut by decision to Mohammed Usman and most recently lost via a TKO leg kick stoppage against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. In the interim, he was able to knock out the old and slow Parker Porter. To be fair, each of the matchups needs some context, as Usman was hanging on for dear life late in the fight and was hurt badly at times. Tafa also took his most recent fight against de Lima on short notice to replace his brother, so he wasn’t fighting on a full camp.

Now, at home in Australia, there’s reason to believe he can perform better. However, Tafa is still one-dimensional in that he needs to keep the fight upright. He’s aggressive and willing to brawl, and I expect that will continue to lead him to knockout victories, but that may also be the only path that gets him his hand raised in the UFC.

Walker has only fought once in the UFC, and he lost his debut to Lukasz Brzeski in a competitive decision where Walker was a heavy favorite. I wasn’t surprised by that performance, and I thought Brzeski had a legit shot as the underdog. Walker’s cardio has looked suspect on the regional scene, and his striking is a borderline liability. He still landed four takedowns and survived the full 15 minutes, so it wasn’t an awful performance, but he slowed down the stretch and wasn’t effective enough to win.

On the regionals, Walker held an 11-0 record with six wins by knockout and one by submission, but he was mostly fighting terrible competition. Most of his work gets done on the mat, which we saw in that debut, and he’s at least a capable wrestler with a workable top game. Unless he’s in control, though, I consider his style flawed, and I won’t be surprised if he loses more often than not at this level.

The good news here is that Walker is the underdog to Tafa. BetMGM has Tafa lined as a -135 favorite and Walker as the +110 underdog. It’s a fair line, but I’d argue there’s some value in Walker at this point.

If Walker cannot land takedowns, he will be at risk of getting knocked out, but Tafa is even worse on the canvas. His takedown defense has rated out OK on paper at 81 percent, but he gave up 12 minutes of control time to Usman, and he couldn’t get up easily from his back. More recently, he could not get up when taken down by de Lima.

It should be an obvious game plan for Walker to continue to wrestle, and that’s what I am expecting. While it’s not a guarantee he will easily get on top, I think he will have the capability to land takedowns early, and one takedown may be enough to win a round dominantly.

I understand being hesitant on both sides due to the questionable talents, but I’m usually more concerned by ground game weaknesses than striking weaknesses. Walker is the better wrestler here, and given Tafa’s skill set, I think Walker is a bit undervalued on the betting markets.

If you’re looking for an underdog sweat, I don’t mind taking a chance on Walker, and I wouldn’t be shocked by a win inside the distance either at +285. A win for Tafa likely comes by TKO, which is a prop I would choose if I wanted to back the home-crowd favorite.

(Photo by Jeff Bottari / Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)